The Bitcoin (BTC) rate has risen by 8% since the beginning of September, from $59,000 to $64,000. Despite the fact that the first cryptocurrency failed to consolidate above the local minimum of $66,000, BTC is trying to close the first month of autumn in the plus. According to Coinglass, the Bitcoin price is trading at $65,818, while the market capitalization is holding at $1.3 trillion. If the monthly candle closes around $65,800, an increase of 11.5% -15% will be recorded in September 2024. Recall that since 2013, positive Bitcoin dynamics in September were observed in only three scenarios, each of which was a harbinger of a significant rally in 2024. If history is any indication, BTC price could see a prolonged recovery in Q4, potentially pushing the asset past its all-time high of $73,750.
ETFs are heating up in the crypto market, and spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant inflows in the past week. On Friday alone, Bitcoin saw a net inflow of $494.4 million, according to Sosolvaue data. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen weekly inflows of +$1.1 billion for several weeks now, indicating growing institutional interest. Moreover, spot ETH ETH has seen weekly gains of $85 million. This inflow is a positive sign for the market, potentially indicating growing confidence in digital assets.
This week, the Bitcoin price forecast recorded a significant jump from $60,800 to $65,910, recording a gain of 5%. The rally helped the price break out of the V-shape on the daily chart, reflecting a sudden change in market sentiment. With continued buying, BTC price rose 3% before challenging the resistance line of the bull flag trend pattern. A breakout to the upside would accelerate the bullish momentum and lead to a rally to $85,000, representing 25% of the potential upside. On the other hand, if the oversupply from the resistance trend line persists, Bitcoin price could trigger another reversal.
Investors will be watching the dynamics of consumer price growth to anticipate whether the key rate cut will occur at the next Fed meeting, which is scheduled for early November. If inflation continues to decline, this will confirm the market participants in the opinion that the rate will be cut again in November, which will increase their appetite for risk assets. Disappointment with the Fed’s actions could cool the crypto market and shift the positive effect closer to the end of the year, the analyst believes. In this case, a drop in BTC to $50 thousand is not excluded. There is still a risk of recession in the US, as well as a high probability of escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. In addition, it is worth noting that the excessively high positivity of the crypto community and the name of the month of October by its participants Uptober (from the English up – “up”) are also confusing. We are forced to additionally point out that the expectations of the masses often do not coincide with reality.
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