During the period from January 22 to January 28, the price of Bitcoin showed high volatility. During the week, Bitcoin traded in a wide range from $38,555 to $42,246. At the time of writing, the weekly body on the chart is colored green. On Monday, January 22, the price fell below $40 thousand, reaching $39,480. The drop was caused by an active outflow of funds from Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF amid the approval of competing products. On Tuesday, January 23, the price dropped to a low of $38,555, which led to a wave of liquidations in the futures market. Grayscale outflows continued to weigh on the stock. On January 24 and 25, quotes consolidated in the range of $39,484 – $40,555 with multidirectional dynamics. The market remained highly volatile. Market participants were waiting for at least some new portion of positive news. On Friday, January 26, at the end of the day, the BTC/USD pair increased by 4.66%, to $41,823. Buyers managed to stop the collapse of the crypto market.
After a 13-day decline of 21% from the January 11 high of $48,969, the price recovered 9.57% to $42,246. They covered the decline of January 22, and this is a positive factor for the entire market. Bitcoin’s recovery accelerated after JPMorgan said the GBTC peak was largely over. The upward correction has intensified since the European session with the dollar index declining. The outflow of funds from the Grayscale trust has slowed, which has led to easing pressure on the cryptocurrency. On Sunday, January 28, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $42.3 thousand, its price has increased by almost 2% since the end of the previous week. Our well-known cryptocurrency expert Konstantinas Sizovas analyzed the situation on the market and assessed the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin rate over the next seven days.
Bitcoin’s downward correction was largely due to redemptions in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Before GBTC converted to an ETF on January 11, it was one of the few ways for US investors to gain exposure to BTC without owning the underlying cryptocurrency. Following the long-awaited approval on January 10, investors took the opportunity to sell their GBTC units, locking in profits on their trades. This meant leaving the cryptocurrency market, hence the downward pressure on the price of Bitcoin. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency investment industry. In just 10 days after launching the fund, the company has accumulated $1,982,095,794 or 49952.32570 BTC (as reported from BlackRock’s website) under management (AUM) after launching the fund and going to market. The amount indicates strong interest among investors. At the current exchange rate, this is already more than $2 billion.
At the time of writing, the BTC/USD pair is trading at $42.3 thousand. Cautious investors have taken a wait-and-see approach, since this is only the first upward wave after the market collapse. Then sellers will once again check buyers to see how ready they are to defend the level of $38,555 and raise the rate to $69 thousand by the halving, which will take place around April 20. According to BitRiver forecasts, the decline phase will end on February 10th. Then the $50K level can be tested to support the bullish trend from the $24,901 low of September 11, 2023. The higher buyers push the price, the less likely it is that the support at $38,555 will be updated. Well, there is another great news for buyers – a pin bar is forming on the weekly chart – a green body with a long lower shadow. Let me remind you that with such an inverted candle the fall began from $48,969. And this is an order for growth to $45 thousand.
The economic calendar is quite full of important data. On January 30, Eurozone GDP data for the fourth quarter will be released. On January 31, data on the manufacturing business activity index (PMI) for January in China, reports on oil reserves from the American Petroleum Institute and the US Department of Energy, a meeting of the US Federal Reserve and a press conference by J. Powell will be released. On February 1, the States will publish an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, on February 2 – a report on the employment market (unemployment, new jobs, average hourly wages), as well as a consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for January. As for the Federal Reserve’s next steps, CME Group’s FedWatch tool predicts rates will remain unchanged at the Fed meeting next Wednesday (Jan. 31) with a 96.7% probability. Votes were split in March, but the likelihood of a decline in May is estimated at about 87%.
For further growth, the cryptocurrency market needs new drivers. In the medium term, such a factor is expected to be the halving in the Bitcoin network, which will take place in April 2024. The cost of mining will increase significantly, which will support the cryptocurrency rate and in the future 12-18 months after the halving can lead to a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin.
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