On Sunday, November 19, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $36.5 thousand, its price has decreased by 1.5% since the end of the previous week. A well-known specialist, analyst and CFO of the ASTL investment project, Konstantinas Sizovas, analyzed the situation on the market and assessed the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin rate over the next seven days.
So, first, let’s note the key events of the past week. weeks. Firstly, inflation in the US slowed to a 7-month low of 3.2% year-on-year in October, but did not affect the crypto market. Secondly, the price of Bitcoin for the first time in a year and a half approached $38 thousand amid optimism around the possible approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. At the same time, the Bitcoin rate dropped to $35,500 due to investors taking profits after the rally. Well, another delay by the SEC in making a decision on applications to launch ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum limited further growth. Bitcoin ended the week with a slight decline, with buyers maintaining control over the market.
During the week, Bitcoin traded in the range of $34,800 to $37,980. Trading on November 13 opened with a decline. They passed quietly. During the American session, the price dropped to $36,534. On November 14, the correction continued and intensified after the publication of inflation data in the United States, which slowed to a 7-month low. Bitcoin fell in price along with the dollar, as sellers reached protective stops on long positions and took out weak players who entered the market around $37 thousand. Despite the growing pressure, buyers held the line. On November 15, Bitcoin recovered to $37,858. The session rally was fueled by optimistic expectations regarding the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF.
On November 16, the price corrected by 4.48% to $36,163 amid profit-taking on long positions after the rally. The upward momentum faded as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) again delayed a decision on two applications for cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The first application was submitted by Brazilian digital asset management company Hashdex. It proposed that the SEC convert its bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund, the Hashdex Bitcoin Futures ETF, into a spot bitcoin ETF. The SEC did not have time to consider it within 45 days, so the decision on it was extended until January 1, 2024. The second application was submitted by the American company Grayscale, the largest digital asset manager in the world. Grayscale has expressed a desire to launch an ETF based on Ethereum futures – the Grayscale Ethereum Futures Trust. The SEC also did not have time to review it within 45 days, so the deadline was extended until January 15, 2024. On November 17, at the end of the day, Bitcoin increased by 1.25%, to $36,613. The price spent the day in the price range of $35,861 – $36,800 after falling to $35,500 on Thursday. Buyers are trying to keep the price above $35,500 and then continue the upward movement while waiting for ETF approval.
According to the cycles, the correction phase ends on November 21. According to the timestamps, nothing has changed for me. As bullish momentum fades, bearish sentiment grows. To continue the rally before halving, buyers need to maintain the level of $35 thousand. Although a new phase of growth begins on November 21, I expect a breakout from buyers to $42 thousand on December 8. They should form a flat pattern above $35 thousand, which will allow sellers to increase short positions, on which buyers will then “ride” to $39 thousand. On November 22, the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting will be released. Investors will be watching them to understand the details of the FOMC members’ discussions at the latest meeting. A decrease in the dollar index after the publication of the minutes may become a trigger for an increase in quotes.
In the US next week they will celebrate a national holiday – Thanksgiving Day, which will reduce the number of working days. Accordingly, liquidity in the global foreign exchange market may be low and volatility may be increased. More often than not, when the US is on holiday, markets trade in narrow ranges. Therefore, price dynamics on the crypto market will be determined by news surrounding ETFs. Bitcoin bulls still control the market. There are no sell signals. We are waiting for the publication of Fed minutes and the resumption of buyer activity.
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