The week started on a positive note: on September 2, Bitcoin rose by 3.19% to $59,132 amid closed markets in the United States due to the holiday (Labor Day). Investors paid attention to the dynamics of S&P 500 futures, and the lack of negative news for the crypto industry allowed buyers to raise the price in a low-liquidity market. However, on September 3, the situation changed. The BTC/USDt pair fell by 2.78% to $57,487. Over the previous nine days, the price fell by 14.4% from $65,000 to $55,606 amid macroeconomic uncertainty and market shifts. The fall occurred in sync with American stock indices. Low liquidity of the crypto market and the active use of leverage in the derivatives market increased volatility. On September 4, Bitcoin attempted to recover, closing up 0.84% to $57,970. However, the momentum was not strong enough to reverse the local downtrend.
September 6 was a key day of the week. After the publication of the US labor market data for August, market volatility increased sharply. At first, the Bitcoin price rose to $57,008, but then fell sharply to $52,550, losing 7.8% in 9 hours. By the end of the day, Bitcoin fell by 3.95% to $53,962. The US labor market report for August 2024 presented a mixed picture. Job growth of 142 thousand was below expectations of 160 thousand and the average for the previous 12 months. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, which is slightly higher than a year earlier. However, average hourly earnings rose 3.8% year-on-year, beating expectations.
The market reaction to the data was mixed. Initially, the weak job creation data sent the US dollar index lower as expectations grew that the Fed might cut interest rates. However, subsequent analysis of the entire report, including strong wage growth, and comments from Fed officials led to a reassessment. Markets realized that the economy was still strong enough that the Fed might be less inclined to cut rates aggressively. This supported the dollar, but negatively affected stock markets and cryptocurrencies.
Thus, it was a tense and volatile week for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market. The price of the first cryptocurrency traded in a wide range from $52,550 to $59,809, ending the period with a decline of 4.84% to $54,541. Ethereum (ETH) lost 5.60% during the same time, falling to $2,289.
On Sunday, September 8, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $54.4 thousand, its price has fallen by about 6% over the week. Our specialist and CFO of the ASTL investment project Konstantinas Sizovas analyzed the situation on the market and assessed the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin rate over the next seven days.
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin has been in a sideways trend for 177 days, since March 14, 2024. A breakout of the $57,130 level downwards cast doubt on the possibility of the rate growing to $69 thousand in the near future. The key resistance level is now the $59,800 mark, and it is important to watch how long the price will be able to return to it. According to BitRiver forecasts, the maximum growth potential is limited to $64,700 before the US Federal Reserve meeting on September 18. The key event of 2024 for all financial markets and sections – the Federal Reserve meeting on September 18 – is getting closer and closer. There is a little more than a week left to wait, and now the so-called “week of silence” is coming. During it, Fed representatives stop going to the microphone, focusing on the upcoming interest rate decision. At the moment, Fed officials have two solutions. One of them, more conservative, is to reduce the rate by one step, the probability of which is now estimated at 70%. The second option, more aggressive – a double step of reduction – has the remaining 30% probability. For the risky asset market, which also includes the cryptocurrency section, the second solution is more preferable. After all, the lower the dollar rates, the more the “global investor” begins to look towards the “risks”. These probabilities may still change (although most likely insignificantly) closer to the meeting. The current layouts for them can be seen on the CME group portal, in the FedWatch section.
This “road map” was fully implemented by the close of trading on September 6: the dollar sank on the announcement of the data, but almost immediately managed to more than make up for these very losses due to the terrible word “recession” that scares world markets. Given these concerns and the traditionally weak September in retrospect for the US stock market, expecting an increase in all “risks” at the moment, on the announcement of the Fed’s rate cut, is a rather reckless exercise. However, if we take the period not in the next month, but at least a quarter, then starting plus or minus October, a full-fledged bullish trend may begin across almost the entire spectrum of crypto tokens.
Against the backdrop of such a rather modest growth of assets, one of the legitimate and stable forms of investment for obtaining a consistently high passive income is investing in the ASTL project (Hong Kong), which gives investors the opportunity to directly invest fiat and crypto assets in a stable passive income, which obviously exceeds inflation expectations and is not subject to any sanctions, blocking or confiscation. The ASTL project is a simple and elegant solution for potential investors – investing in the development of the real sector of a diversified cryptocurrency portfolio with a fairly high annual interest rate (up to 14%) with payments in stablecoin (USDT) and the possibility of a full return on investment through the subsequent sale of accumulated ASTL tokens on leading crypto exchanges. Details can be found at https://astl.world.
