On Sunday, September 17, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $26.5 thousand, its price increased by 2.7% over the past week. The key events of the past week were: First. The price of Bitcoin experienced strong fluctuations amid news of a possible sale of FTX assets. Second. Support was provided by positive news about a potential Bitcoin ETF from Franklin Templeton. Third. The next speech by the head of the SEC did not significantly affect the crypto market. That is, the technical picture is favorable for the further growth of Bitcoin.
CFO and leading analyst of the ASTL project Konstantinas Sizovas analyzed the market situation and assessed the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin rate over the next seven days. Last week, Bitcoin was actively trading in the range of $24.9 thousand – $26.9 thousand. On Monday, the price dropped to $24,901 due to rumors of an imminent sale of assets of the bankrupt crypto exchange FTX. However, on Tuesday there was a recovery to $26,567 after the panic selling. On Wednesday and Thursday, the price moderately recovered to $26,860. The recovery took place against the backdrop of growth in the S&P 500. On Friday, September 15, Bitcoin rose in price by 0.29%, to $26,600. In the first half of the day, the BTC/USDt pair dropped to $26,224 amid decline in index futures. By the close of the day, buyers managed to win back all the day’s losses and close in positive territory. The growth in quotations was limited due to the fall of the S&P500 and a slight strengthening of the dollar before the weekend.
The BTC/USDT pair rose to $26,888. According to BitRiver estimates, the first intermediate resistance is at $27,600. It is unlikely that it will be passed the first time. Considering that seasonal cyclical factors indicate a strengthening of Bitcoin, it is worth considering an increase in quotes first to $27,600, then to $28,600. The technical picture on the daily timeframe is favorable for continued growth. We need a little positivity from the regulators to get past key levels.
The next week will include important data on inflation, business activity and rates that could impact markets and investors’ investment decisions. On Tuesday (September 18), EU inflation data will be published, including the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. Forecasts indicate that indicators will remain at the level of the previous period, when pan-European inflation was 0.3%. Investor attention to the data may be high, but it is worth remembering that inflation is still an issue and the market reaction may be unpredictable. In the dollar index, the euro makes up more than 50%, so we included this indicator.
In the US, everyone is watching the Fed. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 5.5% on Wednesday (September 20). However, concerns about inflation could prepare markets for a possible rate hike before the end of the year. Of more interest is Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech after the meeting. He may hint at further interest rate hikes if inflation does not slow further. The current state of the economy indicates its ability to adapt to new rate hikes.
On Friday (September 22), preliminary EU manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) will be released, as will similar data from the US. These indicators are awaited with great interest as they can provide insight into the state of the economy and indicate possible trends.
Now Bitcoin is trying to consolidate the key level of $26 thousand and go beyond the trading level that began on August 18. When we go up, strong resistance awaits us at $28 thousand, and the daily Ichimoku cloud also passes there. An additional growth factor for me is the fractal – a similar situation since May 2020, when Bitcoin consolidated for a long time in an ascending channel, which was eventually broken upward. But here it is important to understand that in order to maintain the formation, you need not to go below $25.7 thousand. In case of going back below $25 thousand, we can go for the third touch of the support line and another paw of the “Dragon” in the area of $24.75 thousand. If this area does not will be held, the next zone for long will be the level of $22.5 thousand, where the trend line passes. Conclusion: panic selling of Bitcoin has stopped, so buyers have the opportunity to develop good growth by the end of next week. Increased volatility in the market is expected on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve meeting and Powell’s press conference. Perhaps Wednesday will be the trigger for Bitcoin to break through to the $27,600 target.