Last week, Bitcoin traded in the range of $34-36 thousand. On October 30, the price of BTC dropped to $34,474, but remained in a horizontal trend around $34,300. On October 31, the price rose slightly to $34,639, continuing consolidation in anticipation of the results of the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve. On November 1, after the US Federal Reserve meeting, there was a sharp increase to $35,421. The growth was caused by investor optimism after statements by the head of the Federal Reserve about a possible slowdown in the rate of rate increases.
On November 2, the price rose to a weekly high of $35,984, from which the correction began. This was fueled by declining optimism regarding the imminent approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Against the backdrop of an unsuccessful offensive, the price dropped to $34,300. On November 3, at the end of the day, Bitcoin fell in price by 0.64%, to $34,716. In general, trading was calm, without sudden spikes in volatility. During the first half of the day, there was a gradual decline in cryptocurrency quotes. The rate dropped to the level of $34,120, after which a slight recovery followed.
The market was provided some support by data on the situation on the American labor market, published at the American session. The indicators turned out to be weaker than market expectations. In particular, the number of new jobs in October amounted to 150 thousand instead of the expected 180 thousand. The previous figure was revised to 297 thousand from 336 thousand. The unemployment rate increased to 3.9% from 3.8%, with expectations of 3.8%. . Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, compared with a 0.2% increase in the previous month and a forecast of 0.3%. Such data strengthened investors’ expectations that the US Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle of monetary policy. This provided support for risk assets.
However, the labor market is starting to show weakness, leading investors to bet that the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. In addition, data on economic activity also turned out to be weak. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services PMI fell short of expectations. In October, the figure was 51.8, lower than the forecast of 53 and 53.6 in September.
Since the Bitcoin rally took place at the end of October, the reaction to the weakening dollar and the growth of stock indices was weak. The euphoria of waiting for spot ETF approval is fading. On Sunday, November 5, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $35 thousand, its price has increased by 3% since the end of the previous week. CFO of the ASTL investment project, Konstantinas Sizovas, analyzed the market situation and assessed the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin rate over the next seven days.
Buyers performed well this week, as they took advantage of the provided time window to push shorts above $35,200 and get as close as possible to the $36,000 level. External conditions remain favorable for an upward movement. Only according to the calculated cycles, a correction phase is approaching with a target of $33 thousand, which can last from November 9 to November 21. The smaller the correction, the higher the probability of growth to $42 thousand. Temporary resistance is the zone of $35,000 – $35,150. Given the weakness of the dollar and the weekly growth of stock indices, buyers may have time to check stops beyond the level of $36 thousand. And this is logical, since on the daily timeframe a truncated formation is formed.
Thus, this week Bitcoin showed moderately positive dynamics. According to our estimates, the key levels of the corridor remain $34 thousand and $36 thousand. To enter the positive zone, it is necessary to confidently overcome the resistance at around $36 thousand. In our opinion, it is better for buyers to go on the defensive and gain strength at the end of November: efforts will be required to overcome new resistance.
