Last week, Bitcoin traded in a range from $32,400 to $35,280. On Monday, the price rose to $34,741, and on Tuesday it peaked at $35,280. This was followed by a correction to $33,390 on Friday. As for history, on October 23, Bitcoin rose by 10.26%, to $33,069. The growth was due to several factors. Firstly, the DXY dollar index reached new monthly lows amid falling US government bond yields. Secondly, the US court confirmed the SEC’s decision to review Grayscale’s application to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF. Thirdly, the rally was supported by technical factors – the liquidation of short positions worth $161 million and the breakthrough of important resistance levels.
On October 24, the price of Bitcoin rose by 2.58% and reached a maximum of $35,280. Among the growth factors was a US court decision obliging the SEC to reconsider Grayscale’s application, as well as the news that BlackRock assigned a ticker to a Bitcoin ETF pending approval. In addition, the weakening dollar provided support. However, by the evening the dollar index turned upward, stopping the rise in the price of Bitcoin. On October 25, the price growth slowed down and amounted to 1.69%, to the level of $34,496. Amid expectations of approval of the Bitcoin ETF, investors ignored the strengthening of the dollar and the decline in stock indices. Investors’ attention was attracted by the upcoming halving. The share of Bitcoin in the crypto market increased to 51.4%.
On October 26, the price of Bitcoin decreased by 1%, to $34,151. The market was pressured by the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of technology stocks in the United States. The Nasdaq index fell 2% and the S&P500 fell 1.2%. The US 10-year yield dropped to 4.88%. Fears of a recession in the United States have increased. On October 27, the BTC/USDt pair fell by 0.76%, to $33,892. During the American session, the price dropped to $33,390 amid falling stock indices. The S&P500 has fallen 10.2% since late July to 4,137. This week, US third-quarter GDP data beat expectations, showing the economy accelerating at its fastest pace since mid-2021. Despite US third-quarter GDP and expectations of a rate hike in December, fears of a recession in the country remain. Inflation continues to worry the Federal Reserve System (FRS). The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed consumer price spending rose at the fastest monthly pace since May, but annual PCE fell slightly in September, reigniting concerns about high interest rates.
On Sunday, October 29, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $34.2 thousand, its price has increased by 14.5% since the end of the previous week. CFO of the ASTL investment project, Konstantinas Sizovas, analyzed the market situation and assessed the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin rate over the next seven days. We have a busy week ahead of us. The focus of economic data will be on employment indicators, including ADP’s private payroll report on Wednesday, jobless claims on Thursday and non-farm payrolls data on Friday. The market expects current monetary policy to continue despite the strong economy and tight labor market as inflation slows but remains above target. In addition, ISM Services is expected to report on business activity index in the US and China. Geopolitical events also remain key factors for traditional assets. Investors will continue to analyze the results of corporate reporting.
The BTC/USDt pair is trading above $34 thousand. According to volume analysis, purchases have noticeably decreased since Friday. This is understandable, because the price has been in a sideways trend for a long time without continuing the rally. And when the price stays for a long time, a two-day flat begins to get on investors’ nerves. At this time, short-term speculators working for a fall begin to join in. According to the cyclic analysis, there are no changes. The growth phase should last until November 9th. Conditions are still favorable for growth. The lack of upward movement after George Powell’s speech on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting may be a wake-up call for buyers. According to the latest generalized data, on November 1, rates will remain in the range of 5.25-5.50 with a probability of 99.9%, on December 13 – with a probability of 80%.
According to our forecasts, the decline phase may last from November 9 to November 21. Closing the day below $32,700 will likely be a harbinger of the start of a correctional phase. For the correction, $31,700 should be allocated as support for the target level. We are waiting for a decision on rates, Powell’s speech and a report on the labor market in the United States.
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