Skip to content Skip to sidebar Skip to footer

Bitcoin ETFs could soon cross 1 million BTC, traders eye tailwinds in November.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $68,952 – barely breaking through $70,000, but with plenty of support at $65,000. There is a HUGE pile of long positions sitting just below 65k, which is also a very important support level. Spot Bitcoin ETF issuers in the US, as shown by Apollo and SoSoValue, currently hold 976,893 Bitcoin worth over $66.2 billion, representing nearly 5% of Bitcoin’s $1.34 trillion market cap.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, or Bitcoin ETFs, in the US could reach a total of 1 million Bitcoin in holdings as early as this week, as traders brace for potential crypto tailwinds in November. These tailwinds include the US election, a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and Russia lifting its ban on Bitcoin mining, all in November. The ETF would need to receive $1.55 billion in net inflows (at current prices) to buy an additional 23,107 Bitcoin to reach that mark. That would require an average of $301 million in net daily inflows this week. It’s worth noting, by the way, that $3 billion has already been received by spot Bitcoin ETFs in the past two weeks alone.

Bitcoin has previously rallied sharply in the months following a halving event — the last of which occurred in April 2024 — while the outcome of the US presidential election on November 5 could also serve as a tailwind for Bitcoin. Bitcoin has risen nearly 43% in November 2020 since the May 2020 halving and President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory – and similar price moves could happen again, no matter who wins. However, it’s natural to think that the “biggest deciding factor” in whether the crypto market will rally or not is Donald Trump’s victory. If he wins, we believe the resulting momentum in risk assets could see BTC reach $100,000 by the end of the year. If that happens, Bitcoin would set a decisive new ATH and make headlines around the world.

Recall, however, that since November 2020, Bitcoin has only posted larger monthly gains in December 2020 and February 2024 – the first full month since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF.

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on November 6 and 7, where CME Group’s Fedwatch tool predicts a 94.7% chance that interest rates will fall by 25 basis points. Rate cuts often ease everyday consumer financial pressures and are generally positive for markets — at least in the short term. Meanwhile, Russia’s lifting of its ban on Bitcoin mining on November 1 is also seen as a bullish development for Bitcoin, promoting decentralization and network security.